Ever since Boris resigned as an MP I have been tempted to write a piece on his fall from grace and what it all means for Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party. In all honesty, I just can’t bring myself to do it. I have moved on. Instead, I am going to write about something of much greater relevance: Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan.
One of the key areas which I think will determine the next election is security. Economic uncertainty, rampant inflation, and war on European soil following an unprecedented global pandemic has brought the need for national security into greater focus.
If there is a path to a general election win for the Conservatives it will be down to people’s reluctance to risk hard-earned stability with Starmer and his new, inexperienced team. None of the shadow cabinet have served in Government with Labour now having been out of power for a generation. Sunak, like David Cameron in 2015, will be able to play the ‘don’t risk the recovery card’ - rather 2024 being a change election, it could be the better the devil you know election.
Labour’s pitch to security can be found in its Green Prosperity Plan. On Monday the 19th of June, Keir Starmer gave a speech setting out Labour’s mission to provide energy security. It is telling that in a speech about clean energy the emphasis was not on net zero or the moral obligation to reverse climate change but security, with Starming declaiming: ‘clean energy is now essential for national security’, ‘get Putin’s boot off our throat with real energy security’, and ‘energy security now threaten(s) the stability of nations’.
In the first year of his Government, Starmer announced that Labour would ‘harness the bounty of clean energy’ with a new publicly owned company called GB Energy. GB Energy would invest in and deliver renewable energy projects, create supply chains in the UK, de-risk and unlock private sector investment, and accelerate the deployment of established technologies. Inspired by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the proceeds of GB Energy will be invested back into communities via a new National Wealth Fund.
I am very excited by these proposals. For too long we have been buying black gold and importing gas from unprincipled and dubious sources. Even with our resources in the North Sea, the energy producers of this world have grown fat and rich at our expense. Whilst the UK ran a budget deficit in the 2022/2023 financial year of £137 Billion (commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings), Russia and Saudi Arabia ran budget surpluses in 2021 and 2022 respectively (The Spectator Index). Starmer summed up the international energy imbalance acutely with the line: ‘When the crisis hit last year and when Russia invaded Ukraine... we had to borrow £40bn with no new infrastructure to show for it.’ And yet Britain has the second largest offshore wind capacity in the world (www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights). It is high time we harness the power of clean energy and secure the UK’s long term energy security.
The question remains: how much will this cost and will it even happen? Already Labour’s £28 billion a year pledge to deliver its Green Prosperity Plan has been scaled back, with investment now being increased over time and reaching £28 billion a year after 2027. In fairness, the economic conditions have changed markedly since the initial pledge was announced at the 2021 Labour Party conference, and it is right for Labour to adjust their spending commitments accordingly. Looked at another way, however, is this just another example of Left-wing spending commitments meeting reality? £28 billion a year is a massive amount of money. Starmer was bullish in his speech, stating that ‘we are doubling down, we’re not backing off’, but abandoning a flagship spending commitment shows that Labour policies are at present a bit of a moving feast.
One aspect of their Green Prosperity Plan which I am not sold on is their policy of ending new licences for oil exploration in the North Sea. I am fully on board with the need to maximise opportunities for clean energy in the UK, but with Starmer and Reeves’ fiscal rules already limiting their ambitions would it not be prudent to maximise all our energy sources? Leading the way on divesting from fossil fuels and furthering the net zero agenda may enhance the UK’s moral authority on climate change, allowing us to press countries to meet their commitments or at least move faster than they would like, but when Biden is approving major new oil drilling projects in Alaska, constraining our own supply seems foolish. Senior Labour figures have themselves suggested North Sea oil will be required well into the 2050s (Keiran Andrews, The Times, 13th June 2023) and so it appears unwise to handicap ourselves before the green revolution really gains traction.
What is undeniable is Starmer’s messaging is spot on. He is not lecturing, but explaining why moving to net zero would be good for the country and in so doing he is far more likely to bring voters along with him. What’s more, with Labour’s green agenda framed in jobs, security, and patriotic terms it is highly persuasive. In recent years the Conservatives have been far better than Labour at talking the country up, whether that be Cameron’s mission of making the UK competitive in the global race or Boris Johnson’s boosterism. Now Labour have a flagship policy in which people can rally around and be proud of with products made in the UK for the UK and with energy profits reinvested in communities.
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