For many months now opinion polls have remained incredibly sticky. Labour are consistently polling in the low 40s, whilst the Conservatives cannot break the 30 point mark. This dynamic makes a mockery of the commentators at the beginning of the year who claimed that as the economy picked up so would Tory fortunes. In fact, the fortunes of the Conservative Party have gotten so bad that the long trending realignment in politics, which has seen traditional working class and non-graduate Labour voters turn to the Conservatives, is being reversed.
At the beginning of the year, Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings were much healthier than his party’s. Now, however, Sunak is just as unpopular as his party with a recent YouGov net favourability poll rating them -41 and -46 respectively. As the dark days of 2022 made way for 2023, it seemed that Sunak was the Conservatives’ only ray of light. There is now no question that Sunak’s light has dimmed.
With the fortunes of the Conservative Party continuing to deteriorate, their unpopularity is more than mid-term blues. There is a very real risk that they have become unpopular to a point that the electorate is no longer interested in what the party does or has to say. The success of the Windsor Framework, the AUKUS agreement which put Britain front and centre on the world stage, and benefits being uprated in line with inflation all came and went without shifting the dial; not only did the UK avoid recession but sharply revised economic figures state the UK economy made a far stronger recovery from Covid than previously estimated, going from the worst performing economy in the G7 to the 3rd best - positive news stories like these at present are counting for nothing.
If indeed the country has moved on from the Conservatives, it would be an extraordinary turnaround in fortunes in a single election cycle. Boris Johnson won a thumping majority in 2019, a majority for the Conservatives not seen since the days of Margaret Thatcher; a majority which meant that Labour would need a swing in votes greater than Tony Blair achieved in 1997 to get back in next time. It was the sort of election result which should have seen Boris as Prime Minister for 2 terms at least. And yet here we are with Labour preparing for power.
The Conservatives’ ability to leverage the support of working class and non-graduate voters, those most likely to vote Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, was central to its victory in 2019 where the party won 45 Labour safe seats in its so-called ‘Red Wall’. Having become disillusioned with Labour’s metropolitan apotheosis, these traditional Labour voters turned to the Conservatives with the Tories able to speak to their social conservatism, patriotism, and values which have been derided by some on the Left of politics as quaint.
In today’s challenging times, however, the ability of Conservatives to align themselves with a particular identity is evidently not enough. Polling undertaken by the academic Matthew Goodwin suggests that the Conservative’s share of support from Brexit voters has collapsed from about 75% to 40%.
A damning poll by Redfield Wilton on the 7th of September records that 52% of Red Wall voters say they feel worse off now than they were in 2019 and this is having a bearing on the issues these voters consider most important. Polling undertaken by YouGov records that for those most likely to have voted Leave in 2016, the economy is now the most important issue facing the country (yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers). Yet over the years, these same voters were more likely to state that health, immigration, or leaving the EU were the most important issues. In this we can clearly see the rising salience of the economy in today’s cost of living crisis.
What really matters to voters right now is their standard of living and they are turning to the party they think will improve their daily lives. Polling by JLP records that Red Wall voters think that Labour would do a better job at handling the cost of living crisis than the Conservatives by 42 to 29, and Redfield Wilton’s polling of voters in Red Wall seats has Labour and the Conservatives on 48% and 32% respectively. If these numbers were returned in the next election, it would mean all Red Wall seats held by the Tories comfortably flipping back to Labour.
The need for Tories to keep hold of the Brexit voting portion of its 2019 voter coalition comes into greater focus in the context of Labour now leading the Conservatives 33% to 31% in Remain voting Tory seats (Redfield Wilton, 12/09/23). The Conservatives could seek to lean into the political realignment in the hope of winning back these voters with ‘wedge’ issues, such as withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights or watering down Net-Zero targets. Whilst raising the salience of wedge issues would create clear dividing lines with Labour, it is not, however, without risk. It may work to alienate small ‘c’ conservatives and trivialise the cost of living crisis with the Tories appearing to draw attention away from the economy.
The stark reality for the Tories is that a key part of its 2019 voting coalition have lost faith in the Conservatives' ability to improve their daily lives. If working-class and non-graduate voters do return to Labour, it would signal a reversal of a longstanding realignment in politics and mean that the Tories are getting squeezed from all sides. The Tories may be able to talk a good game about Britain’s national interests, the flag, and traditional family life, but what really matters to voters right now is their standard of living. For the Conservatives to stand any chance at the next election, people will need to start feeling noticeably better off and therefore the Tories must move the economy on from today’s stagflation. Time, however, is running out.
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