In 1972, Conservative MP Admiral Sir Morgan Morgan-Giles gave a speech to back bench MPs to quell unrest over Britain’s accession to the European Economic Community, the precursor to the European Union. As he rose to give his speech, however, he realised he had forgotten his notes and so proceeded to declaim ‘Pro bono publico, no bloody panico!’. The latin phrase translated means ‘for the public good’, with the well-humoured naval flourish ‘no bloody panico!’ added for good measure.
Prime Minister Liz Truss may have made a virtue of doing unpopular things for the public good, seeking to bring about a leaner, more dynamic economy by simplifying the tax regime and introducing supply side reforms, but panic may indeed be setting in for many in Conservative Party circles and for good reason.
A new leader can expect to enjoy a honeymoon period and a bounce in opinion polls for their party, but for Liz Truss this has never materialised. Since taking over as Prime Minister, the Conservatives have not polled higher than 35%, and since Kwasi Kwarteng’s fiscal event on the 23rd of September the Conservatives’ poll position has plummeted: a poll published by YouGov on Saturday the 8th of October has Labour on 52% and the Conservatives on 22% - if replicated in a General Election this would result in a landslide even greater than Tony Blair’s in 1997 and the Conservatives returning fewer than 100 MPs.
The scale of Labour’s polling lead so soon after Liz Truss has become Prime Minister suggests, rather than warming to her the more they see of her, the wider public have simply dismissed her out of hand. If Truss’ economic growth plan takes off she may be able to turn it around, but as I set out in Blog Post 10, when it comes to economic competence the British public is unforgiving and the Conservative’s loss of support may be terminal. Truss has gambled the future of her premiership and the Conservative Party on economic growth. The problem is economic growth can mean different things to different people, and unless people feel better off come election day economic growth will count for nothing.
A serious issue which Liz Truss has to contend with is that she has never had the support of the majority of the Conservative Parliamentary Party. She may have been the darling of the grass roots, but Conservative MPs were torn three-ways between Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, and Liz Truss during the Conservative leadership contest. The implications of this is that the Parliamentary Party are not loyal to Liz Truss in the same way they were to previous leaders such as Boris Johnson. This dynamic is already very apparent with the likes of Michael Gove doing media rounds criticising the direction in which Liz Truss is taking the Party and spearheading the campaign to drop the abolition of the top-rate of income tax. Gove is now campaigning to ensure benefits rise in line with inflation rather than wages, making Kwasi Kwarteng’s task of reigning in spending to off-set borrowing to deliver tax cuts more challenging.
Any political capital Truss may have had has been expended shoring up support after the disastrous fiscal statement. Just 32 days into her premiership, and despite presiding over a significant majority in the House of Commons, Truss can no longer seek to do what she wants and force through reforms. Truss now has to contend with large sections of the parliamentary party that will seek to curtail her in an effort to ensure the Conservatives stand at least a chance at the next election, whether that be through a more moderate agenda or by undermining her to a point where her authority is lost and a new leader elected.
Strikingly, and perhaps most importantly, against this backdrop Labour now has momentum. For the first time, as he gave his party leader speech at the Labour conference in Liverpool on the 27th of September, Keir Starmer looked like a Prime Minister in waiting. As he delivered his speech, the confidence he exuded and the positivity in the room was palpable. Labour’s poll lead may be down to Tory incompetence rather than a genuine desire for a Labour government - after all Starmer is still the uncharasmatic leader he has always been and presiding over a party which contains an uncomfortable number of far-left headbangers - but there is now genuine belief in Labour circles and in the political media that Labour can win the next election. This change in perception and how it can shape political narratives should not be underestimated.
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