The polling bounce for the Conservative Party since Rishi Sunak’s became Prime Minister has been modest at best. When Boris left office the Conservative Party were polling in the low 30s. Three weeks into the Sunak administration and the Conservatives are still floundering in the 20s. The less than impressive uptick in opinion polling suggests the Conservative Party brand has been damaged by recent events to such an extent that the electorate are not minded to forgive the party any time soon for the scandals, political unrest, and economic uncertainty they have subjected the country to.
In striking contrast to the Party’s fortunes, polls suggest that generally the electorate has quite a favourable view of Rishi Sunak. He leads Starmer on who British voters think would be the better Prime Minister by 2 points (Redfield and Wilton Strategies, 7/11/22). Considering how voters largely perceive political parties through the prism of the party leader, this will give Tories some solace.
Sunak’s lead over Starmer in leader polls may be symptomatic of how the electorate still doesn't know that much about the Labour leader or what he stands for, despite Starmer having been leader since April 2020. Starmer may be forgiven for keeping his cards close to his chest; new leaders of opposition parties tend to refrain from announcing policies too soon in case they are stolen by the party of Government and to ensure they have something to announce closer to election time to build momentum. However, Sunak’s lead over Starmer in leadership polls suggests that Labour’s lead in party polling is down to dissatisfaction with the Conservatives rather than a genuine movement behind Starmer’s vision for the country.
In a previous blog post I wrote of how political eras usually come to an end when the incumbent administration loses its economic credibility. With Liz Truss at the helm, the Tories were looking at a 1997 wipe out and a Labour landslide. Perceptions of the Conservative’s economic credibility should now be qualified in light of Sunak’s popularity and the fact he is seen as economically competent. A YouGov poll has Sunak leading Starmer 50% to 39% on who is the most trusted to manage the economy (YouGov, 3/11/22).
John Major led the Conservatives into the 1997 election despite his economic credibility never having recovered from Black Wednesday on the 16th of September 1992 - a collapse in the pound forced the UK to exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, a central plank of Major’s economic policy. Crucially, Sunak didn’t reside over the recent economic turmoil, and polling suggests the electorate is placing this turmoil firmly at the foot of Liz Truss. Indeed, the very reason Sunak is now Prime Minister is to fix the mess created by Truss and therefore, unlike in 1997, the Conservatives won’t be going into the 2024 election weakened by a leader without economic credibility.
In 1992, John Major won an unexpected majority for the Conservatives and a 4th term in power. The Tories took the 1992 election by 7.6 points, a lead which no pollster came anywhere close to predicting. Major’s election victory followed a recession in the UK, with the UK economy detracting for 5 consecutive quarters from autumn 1990 to autumn 1991, and a period in 1990 where Labour were polling comfortably in the 50s, much like Labour is today.
The Bank of England announced on the 4th of November that the UK economy is currently in recession and will continue to be until 2024. Like Major, who came to power in November 1990 just when the recession of the early 90s began, Sunak will be Prime Minister at a time of recession. Sunak’s time at No. 10 is going to be defined by the economy which makes the budget on the 17th of November a pivotal moment for it will set the course of Government between now and the next General Election. It may well be that the Conservatives will get their polling bounce proper once the Autumn Statement is made, with it going someway to further reassure the electorate that the economy is in safe hands.
In an effort to prove his fiscal credentials in contrast to Truss, Sunak will need to be sure not to ‘over correct’ and stifle growth with Austerity 2.0. Ironically, following Truss’ U-turns and the abandonment of tax cuts, Goldman Sachs predicted a deeper recession as financial conditions tighten and the corporate tax rate is increased and subsequently downgraded the UK economic outlook (markets.businessinsider.com), echoing the days of Cameron and Osborne in the early 2010s who in hindsight cut too far and too fast, resulting in slower growth than expected (Davies (2022) The Chancellors, p48).
What is troubling about the current recession is that interest rates are going up to combat inflation which will result in less money in the economy as people save more and borrow less; rather than turning on the spending taps to ignite the economy, public spending is being tightened following massive amounts of public borrowing and spending throughout Covid-19 and to combat high energy prices with the emergency energy price freeze; and, despite being at a 75 year high, taxes are set to go up to fill the hole in the Country’s finances. Add to this real-term funding cuts to departmental budgets due to inflation and record NHS waiting times following Covid-19 and it is safe to say Sunak’s in-tray is well and truly full.
If Sunak is able to navigate the fierce economic headwinds over the next 2 years then history suggests there is still a path back for the Conservative Party. Coupled with how Starmer pales in comparison to Tony Blair, then despite Labour's current large polling lead, the outcome of the next election may be more like 1992 than 1997.
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