As a self-styled politico, I am very aware that I am too close to politics to be able to objectively gauge what is genuinely significant. To put it differently, I am not best placed to point to what is significant enough to ‘cut through’ and gain traction with the wider electorate. Many of us who follow politics closely may well have a grasp of the topical events of the day, but our political antenna is skewed. Unless one actively challenges their views, it is likely that what is important to the average voter, and what event genuinely turns the political dial so to speak, will not be appreciated. This is compounded by living and working alongside people that are often similar to us. In my university educated, mostly millennial Manchester world you would think that everyone is going to vote Labour next time, but step away from metropolitan areas and a very different understanding of life is acutely apparent.
Something I am increasingly fascinated by is focus groups and the views of those not interested in politics. One of the things I love most about travelling back to the holy land of Hampshire to see my family is the opportunity to discuss current events. Without ‘leading the witness’, I ask my family questions about the state of politics and am always astounded by what they have or haven't picked up on. This Christmas didn't disappoint.
Reflecting on 2022, the events surrounding Liz Truss’ premiership are to my mind the most significant. The Conservative Party leadership election which took place over the summer following Boris Johnson’s defenestration was indulgent, almost excruciatingly so, and resulted in Truss becoming first among equals. Her haste, carefree attitude to debt, and lack of authority brought her down after just 45 days. Truss inexplicably damaged the Tories’ reputation for economic competence, gifting Labour the argument that the Tories’ crashed the economy. And yet much of this largely passed my family by. No one could tell me any of Liz Truss’ policies and no one could tell me why she is no longer Prime Minister. Kwasi Kwarteng’s ‘fiscal event’ on the 23rd of September went largely unnoticed. Quite amazingly, despite the fact Truss undermined confidence in government debt which risked the collapse of some pension funds, the consensus around the kitchen table was that her removal was a knee-jerk reaction and that she should have been given more time.
Many of the topics, names, and events I brought up were largely met by blank stares. No one could tell me who Owen Paterson (lobbying scandal) or Chris Pincher (alleged sexual misconduct) are, despite the fact events surrounding these two men whipped SW1 into a frenzy and were central to Boris’ downfall. It was acutely apparent that for those who dip in and out of politics events which us politicos consider scandals or apply the affix ‘gate’ to hardly register.
One question I was keen to hear their views on was why the UK economy is currently in recession. In response to this question, there was no mention of the £400 billion borrowed to pay for furlough or the Liz Truss experiment. The current recession was attributed to Brexit and the war in Ukraine. To the one Leave voter in the group, Brexit had not gone as promised, and the inhumanity of the war in Ukraine trivialised the everyday stories coming out of Westminster.
More than anything we discussed, there were three things which really stood out to me. These related to Keir Starmer, partygate, and the NHS:
I asked my family what they thought of Keir Starmer and they all looked at each other with puzzled expressions. Simply put, despite him having been Labour leader for almost 3 years, they barely had any opinion of him. One member of the group didn’t even recognise the name. The Labour leader has been criticised by commentators for his lack of vision and for the absence of charisma. If my family focus group is anything to go by, these criticisms are perceptive. 2023 needs to be the year Starmer stamps his authority and personality on politics. The headmasterly showings at PMQs which I witness each Wednesday is not going to cut it.
Until I mentioned Sue Grey’s name, partygate wasn’t raised as a significant event in 2022, though once raised it invoked very strong anti-Government sentiment. Expressions which can only be described as abhorrence were clearly visible amongst the group. The anger directed towards those in Government with a slack attitude to Covid measures whilst people couldn’t see loved ones in care homes or hospitals was palpable. Partygate embodies an unfairness, a betrayal of the Governing class against those who selflessly accepted authoritarianism in the name of the public good. The strength of feeling I witnessed suggests the anger associated with partygate is unlikely to go away and may well be a potent weapon to be used against the Conservatives.
With respect to the NHS, I asked my family if they would be surprised to hear that the NHS has never had so much money, 40% more in real terms than in 2010 at £150 billion per year, and has never had so many doctors and nurses. They were indeed surprised. They could not fathom why with ever increasing amounts of money the NHS was creaking. Although there was sympathy for striking nurses, when I relayed that they were demanding a 19% pay rise it was clear from all present that this demand was preposterous. The Tories have kept the promise they made in their 2019 manifesto and provided additional funding for the NHS. In fact, funding for health has been ring fenced since 2010, avoiding austerity and rising year on year. The Tories may well have neutralised Labour’s usual attack lines in this area to a degree, but they are gaining no political benefit from the eye-watering health budget.
Looking ahead to the next election, the common position was that it was too early to say who they would vote for. Rishi Sunak’s partygate fine was mentioned but on the whole it appeared as though he had come through the scandal ridden 2022 relatively unscathed, especially as the current economic malaise was not being placed at his feet. However, it would be safe to say that my family are currently in the ‘don’t know’ camp.
The significance of who my family are going to vote for at the next election is not the point of this blog post and in any case would only be of relevance in the context of their previous voting record and the constituency in which their vote is to be cast. The picture being painted here is that events which may seem significant to those following politics are, quite frankly, not.
This underlines the salience of words proffered by Professor Tim Bale:
‘In Britain at least, changes of Government are precipitated not by a burning sense of right or wrong but by a vague feeling that some kind of correction is needed to bring them back into balance’ (The Conservative Party: From Thatcher to Cameron (2016) p435).
It may be romantic to think the average voter makes their way to the voting booth with a rounded and informed opinion. I am sure that voters ‘switch on’ during General Election campaigns, but the extent to which this constitutes careful considerations of different policy positions is another thing altogether. For better or worse, for all the hot air expounded and words written by politicians and commentators alike, the reality is voters are likely to vote with their gut instinct. Against this backdrop, politicos like myself would do well to not get too excited the next time a story comes out of the Westminster village.
However vague in the minds of voters, the events of 2022 have been sufficient to move the polls in Labour’s favour, with the Tories struggling to poll above 30% even with Rishi Sunak at the helm. Details of political intrigue may not have been noted, but the ‘drip-drip’ of negativity in 2022 may have turned the tide against the Conservatives.
Comments