Both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s New Year speeches provided a keen insight into how the Conservatives and Labour are likely to fight the next election. Already we can see the 2024 election being framed as competency vs change, with Sunak setting out 5 foundational promises which he asks to be judged against, and Starmer offering national renewal after 13 years of Tory rule.
In achieving his 5 promises, Sunak will supposedly halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut NHS waiting lists, and stop the small boats crossing the English Channel. Stating that he would ‘focus less on politics and more on the things (people) care about’, Sunak has in effect positioned himself as a technocrat who will fix the Country’s most pressing problems.
After the Conservative Party leadership relay race, a period of calm and competency may just be what the electorate is after. However, technocratic managerialism does nothing to dispel the disquiet over what Sunak’s vision for the country is. In his New Years speech he spoke of ‘a more innovative economy, stronger communities and safer streets, (and) a world class education system’ but this is hardly groundbreaking stuff. Where are the new ideas for Britain’s long-term prosperity? Sunak’s technocratic style is making the Conservatives appear intellectually spent.
It is not lost on people that the Government is having to contend with a difficult situation that was not wholly of their own making and in this context Sunak’s ability to demonstrate competence is no bad thing, especially as he has no mandate for reform from the electorate. However, even if Sunak can get a grip on the current crises, it is hard to see what the Conservatives can offer the country in 2024 to win re-election. What is going to be the hook which makes people vote Conservative? Competence is surely the minimum requirement.
The Conservatives went into the 2010 election on the idea that Labour had maxed out the country’s credit card and failed to fix the roof whilst the sun was shining, exacerbating the fallout of the global financial crash. This messaging, although not sufficient to secure the Conservatives a majority, was enough to turn voters away from Labour and bring about the Coalition Government.
In 2015, Cameron and Osborne argued that voters should stick with the Conservative so that they could finish the job and deliver their long-term economic plan, and that in a hung parliament scenario Ed Miliband would be in the pocket of Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. This messaging brought about a stunning victory for Cameron’s Conservative, producing a slim majority and all but wiping out the Liberal Democrats in the process.
Boris Johnson had the ultimate hook in 2019 with ‘Get Brexit Done’. This simple message to break the impasse surrounding Brexit tapped into the anti-establishment feeling that underpinned the Brexit vote, providing voters once again the opportunity to show legislators who was in charge, and allow the country to move forward.
Going into an election with a clear ‘hook’ which voters can identify with is crucial. The one election in recent history in which the Conservatives didn’t have a clear hook was 2017. In 2017, the Conservatives were insouciant to the threat posed by Jeremy Corbyn and thought they could simply rely on his unpopularity to get them over the line. A disastrous election campaign didn’t help as Theresa May went from ‘Strong and Stable’ to ‘Weak and Wobbly’ with her reluctance to take part in televised leadership debates and U-turn on her social care plan making her look weak. As a result she lost her majority and brought on 2 years of political inertia.
The importance of having a clear hook going into the next election is underlined by the fact that Labour’s election message writes itself: the Tories have been in power for 13 years and nothing works - vote Labour for national renewal.
It may well be that the electorate still doesn't trust Labour and that change in and of itself isn’t enough, particularly as looking beyond the rhetoric Labour isn’t offering much either. Labour’s big thing going into the next election looks to be their flagship Take Back Control Bill. This Bill would devolve powers to communities, putting power and decision making into the hands of local people. Though, in appropriating the language of the Vote Leave campaign in the Brexit referendum, Starmer is being too clever by half and I would contest that actually people don’t necessarily want to make decisions for themselves, they just want things to work and for politicians to do their job.
Starmer’s message of change is persuasive, but he needs to ensure that the alternative Government he is offering is attractive and I don’t think devolution and the added level of bureaucracy this brings is what voters are pining for. In an uncertain world, it may be better the devil you know, particularly if Sunak keeps his 5 promises, however prosaic they may be. Being able to go into the next election saying ‘we can be trusted to deliver, just look at our record’ will be a valuable currency, and a currency which only Sunak can spend.
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