An opinion poll released on Saturday the 20th of August 2022 has Labour 14 points ahead (YouGov). This is the largest Labour lead in any opinion poll since 2013 and if repeated at a General Election would be Labour Majority territory. Perhaps more importantly, Labour and Keir Starmer are now ahead on the key metrics of economic competence, leadership likeability, and preference for Prime Minister.
The thing is, there is a great difference between responding to an opinion poll in the middle of an election cycle and a General Election. When responding to opinion polls, respondents map the current Government up against their ideal Government, and in that scenario support for the incumbent Government will always be dampened. The circumstances surrounding the decision voters make in the polling booth at a General Election when minds are focused on the future, and not the country's current ills, are quite different.
Furthermore, the Tories are currently leaderless and stuck on a loop repeating the same tired soundbites to the same niche element of the electorate. It may be that the leadership contest has created a false impression of the party’s current fortunes due to how it is difficult to judge a party without a leader, and if so one should not put too much emphasis on current opinion polls.
One thing is for sure and it is that the silence from Number 10 on the main issues of the day is deafening. How can Labour do anything but make political gains? The opportunity provided by the current leadership vacuum has been duly taken by Labour, with this week Kier Starmer announcing Labour’s plan to tackle the cost of living crisis. The plan consists of freezing the energy price cap at its current level, the £27 billion cost of which would be funded through an extension of the windfall tax, cancelling the planned £400 rebate, and by a cut in government debt interest payments of £7bn brought about by the measures.
With high energy prices amounting to market failure it is right for the state to step in to ease the burden on its citizens. However, energy prices are expected to remain high for longer than 6 months and therefore Labour’s policy will likely cost considerably more than £27 billion. Labour’s assertion that its freezing of energy prices would stop inflation rising as high as it would have done otherwise is also questionable, as the inflation the country is experiencing is imported inflation stemming from high energy prices. The price cap does not change the price of energy and only applies to domestic properties and as such Labour’s proposals would have no bearing on the pressure high energy prices are having on businesses, which means that prices are still likely to rise as costs are passed onto consumers.
However, questionable Labour’s policy may be, at least it is something. The Conservatives meanwhile continue their navel-gazing in a leadership election that has been going on far too long. There are still another two weeks to go! The timescales of the leadership election were agreed by Graham Brady, the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, and Boris Johnson. It does not reflect well on their political judgement that they thought a long leadership campaign would do anything but hurt the party. A long contest makes sense when a party is obliged to undertake the necessary soul searching after an election loss, but it is simply inappropriate in the current situation. The contest has created a vacuum of leadership at a time of national crisis which is being filled by Labour and is overly indulgent, suggesting that Conservatives consider their party to be of more importance than the issues facing the country.
The current Conservative Leadership contest is the wrong contest at the wrong time. The removal of Boris Johnson was supposed to improve the fortunes of the Conservative party and provide it with a ‘bounce’ after a prolonged period of scandal. The long-leadership contest to elect his successor may actually have given Labour impetus, leaving the new Prime Minister having to face a buoyed Labour party amidst a headwind of economic crisis not seen since the financial crash.
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