Another Conservative leadership contest is in full swing and Rishi Sunak is out in front, with c. 120 Conservative MPs making public their endorsements. Sunak’s fall from furlough grace due to his billionaire wife’s non-domiciled status for a time looked like it would put him out of the running for the Conservative leadership. It is reported that Sunak can rely on the support of 80-100 Conservative MPs and if this is the case he will surely make it to the last two and face the vote of Conservative Party members.
Conservative MPs may see in Sunak a future Prime Minister but I am not sure the public at large see him that way. Sunak served as Chancellor in the Johnson Government and raised taxes to their highest level for 70 years. Debt has also increased £596 billion under Sunak / Boris, faster than any other prime minister in recent history (ONS series HF6W, to May 2022). He was also fined for contravening social distancing measures at the same (non-) event as Boris. In short, he is too close to the Boris administration; he is implicated.
What the country needs now is a break from the Boris Johnson years, someone who served in his cabinet and was such a prominent figure during his time in Government will not deliver that.
Taxation is going to be a key battle ground in the next General Election. Sunak can state that he is a low tax Conservative as much as he wants but the evidence to the contrary is all too apparent. If and when Labour forms a Government and raises taxes, the moment Sunak brings up the subject Starmer can say with confidence ‘I will take no lessons from the man who raised the tax burden to its highest level in 70 years’. And he’s got a point.
Sunak should be given credit for going against fiscal conservative instincts to ensure Covid didn’t bring the country to its knees, and Sunak has a ready made response to counter any rebuttal by Labour on taxation, namely:
‘... the Government spent £400 billion through Covid to keep the economy from disintegrating. This had to be paid for somehow, either through taxation or borrowing. Increasing taxation and public debt at a time of international crisis is the responsible thing to do, and once the economy is back on track taxation and debt will begin to fall, as it did under Cameron in the wake of the financial crisis. The Conservatives saved the economy before, they can do it again.’
Before Sunak can worry about Labour attack lines, he needs to win the leadership contest. Team Boris will be out for Sunak after the way he resigned from the cabinet in the days before Boris’ resignation. Jacob Rees Mogg has already been doing the media rounds denouncing Sunak as a poor choice of leader due to his propensity to tax. Team Boris will also not take well to the leadership campaign video published by Sunak in the wake of Boris’ resignation. The polished 3 minute video has clearly been prepared in advance, ready for when the Boris administration fell which suggests his resignation from Chancellorship was part of his own political manoeuvring.
With Sunak taking an early lead in the leadership contest there is a target on his back. Conservative leadership contests are characterised by efforts to take down the frontrunner. Blue on blue attacks will intensify in the coming weeks and we can expect Sunak to face mounting criticism from those on the right of the party; he may, however, have enough support from colleagues to keep his campaign on track.
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